Modelling regional economic effects of the Öresund link -linking two regional economic models

The Öresund link, opened in July 2000, is a sixteen-kilometre fixed link with several specific characteristics. E.g., the link connects two countries, Denmark and Sweden and two urban areas, Copenhagen and Malmö, with 1 and 0,5 million people, respectively. Further, the fixed link reaches Denmark nearby Copenhagen Airport, which implies easy access to an international airport for a lot of people in Southern Sweden. No doubt, a fixed link with these features will influence the regional interaction and regional development in many ways. Defining a suitable model approach for assessing the regional economic consequences of the fixed link raises several challenging issues: The problem of dealing with border barriers, the choice between regional and multiregional approaches, the difficulty of modelling short term as well as long term effects. These issues seem too complicated to be dealt with within a single model framework. The paper presents one limited model approach. Two regional economic models, LINE in Denmark and RAPS in Sweden, are linked to each other by a common interaction module, where flows from/to the respective part of the Öresund region are being modelled, with respect to trade, commuting and migration. Preliminary model results are presented, mainly dealing with the impact of building the link.

Applied Methods for Analysis of Economic Structure and Change

The thesis comprises five papers and an introductory overview of applied models and methods. The papers concern interdependences and interrelations in models applied to empirical analyses of various problems related to production, consumption, location and trade. Among different definitions of 'structural analysis' one refers to the study of the properties of economic models on the assumption of invariant structural relations, this definition is close to what is aimed at in lire present case. Although the subjects cover widely differing aspects of the economic system, applied models and methods, i.e. entropy maximizing (information minimizing) models and random utility maximizing models, are in many cases closely connected. Tlic first paper reports on a regional input-ouput study applied to Norrbotten, Sweden. The paper is mainly concentrated on developing and estimating an econometric model, describing the structural interdependences in the Norrbotten economy. The chapter is composed of three parts. The first part concerns the theoretical basis of the model, the main fields of application and principal problems in connection with the estimation. The core of the estimated model is defined by the intersectoral dependences in the Norrbotten economy. This model can be viewed as a part of a more general model of the regional economy, and such a general model is briefly outlined. The second part reports on the collection and arranging of data, and the methods used for the estimation of the model. In the third part the results are presented. A special interest concerns the effects of production changes in the basic industries in the county, as to the expected impact on different industries and occupational groups. The second paper concerns some aspects of the problem of predicting trade flows in the forest sector. The model, based on information theory, is predicting current trade flows by adjusting the historical, a priori, trade flows to satisfy current export and import totals. In the third paper an entropy model is employed to decompose the interregional and intraregional employment change in Sweden and Stockholm, during the period 1960 - 1980, into effects attributed to regions (zones), industries, occupations and interaction effects. The fourth paper presents an empirical analysis of housing choice, based on individual data of households in Stockholm. The consumer choice is regarded as a complex choice from a finite set of discrete alternatives and a probabilistic choice mode! (multinomial logit) is employed, where secondary dwelling is included in the housing choice decision. In the final paper spectral analysis is used for identifying the significant components of cycle behaviour in time series of Swedish exports of forest products over a twenty year time period.digitalisering@um

Applied Methods for Analysis of Economic Structure and Change

The thesis comprises five papers and an introductory overview of applied models and methods. The papers concern interdependences and interrelations in models applied to empirical analyses of various problems related to production, consumption, location and trade. Among different definitions of 'structural analysis' one refers to the study of the properties of economic models on the assumption of invariant structural relations, this definition is close to what is aimed at in lire present case. Although the subjects cover widely differing aspects of the economic system, applied models and methods, i.e. entropy maximizing (information minimizing) models and random utility maximizing models, are in many cases closely connected. Tlic first paper reports on a regional input-ouput study applied to Norrbotten, Sweden. The paper is mainly concentrated on developing and estimating an econometric model, describing the structural interdependences in the Norrbotten economy. The chapter is composed of three parts. The first part concerns the theoretical basis of the model, the main fields of application and principal problems in connection with the estimation. The core of the estimated model is defined by the intersectoral dependences in the Norrbotten economy. This model can be viewed as a part of a more general model of the regional economy, and such a general model is briefly outlined. The second part reports on the collection and arranging of data, and the methods used for the estimation of the model. In the third part the results are presented. A special interest concerns the effects of production changes in the basic industries in the county, as to the expected impact on different industries and occupational groups. The second paper concerns some aspects of the problem of predicting trade flows in the forest sector. The model, based on information theory, is predicting current trade flows by adjusting the historical, a priori, trade flows to satisfy current export and import totals. In the third paper an entropy model is employed to decompose the interregional and intraregional employment change in Sweden and Stockholm, during the period 1960 - 1980, into effects attributed to regions (zones), industries, occupations and interaction effects. The fourth paper presents an empirical analysis of housing choice, based on individual data of households in Stockholm. The consumer choice is regarded as a complex choice from a finite set of discrete alternatives and a probabilistic choice mode! (multinomial logit) is employed, where secondary dwelling is included in the housing choice decision. In the final paper spectral analysis is used for identifying the significant components of cycle behaviour in time series of Swedish exports of forest products over a twenty year time period.digitalisering@um

Vidareutveckling och kalibrering av STRAGO

Två rapporter, varav den ena har fokus på modeller för regionalekonomiska beräkningar och framskrivningar med visst fokus på STRAGO, Raps och PINGO. Den andra rapporten fokuserar på vidareutveckling och kalibrering av STRAGO.Viss vidareutveckling av STRAGO samt översyn av rAps och STRAGO-rAp

Analys av dödsolyckor med fotgängare och cyklister på statligt vägnät

Denna studie gjordes på uppdrag av Trafikverket med syfte att analysera djupstudier av trafikolyckor där fotgängare och cyklister omkommit på statligt vägnät. Vidare studerades samtliga suicidfall där den omkomna klassats som fotgängare eller cyklist (endast statligt vägnät). Projektet omfattade insamling, analys och dokumentation av data. Insamling skedde med hjälp av Trafikverkets databas för djupstudier av dödsolyckor. Vidare identifierades åtgärder för att i framtiden kunna undvika de studerade dödsfallen.Analys av dödsolyckor på det statliga vägnätet mellan motorfordon och cyklister samt fotgängar

Congestion charges and labour market imperfections : \u93wider economic benefits\u94 or \u93losses\u94?

The presence of distortive taxation and agglomeration benefits in the labour market means that there are benefits and losses not captured by standard cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures. Recent theoretical analyses have raised concerns that the labour market effects of congestion charges may constitute considerable losses in the form of reduced aggregate labour income, over and above what is captured by the consumer surplus in the standard analysis of congestion charges \u96 possibly to the extent that congestion charges may reduce aggregate social welfare, contrary to conventional wisdom in transport economics. The sign and size of these effects are an empirical question, however. We investigate this issue by estimating the labour income effects of the Stockholm congestion charges, using an estimated relationship between workplace accessibility and labour income. Results show positive effects on labour income, meaning that the \u93wider economic benefits\u94 of this system are in fact benefits, not losses. It turns out to be crucial that the model accounts for value-of-time heterogeneity in the income/accessibility relationship and in the calculation of generalized travel costs